Transfer Shock
Which students are at risk of disruption after transfer and how soon can institutions respond?
The Transfer Shock model identifies students at risk of early academic disruption during the critical first terms after transfer. By detecting early warning signals tied to enrollment behavior and academic performance, the model enables institutions to intervene sooner—before challenges lead to stop-out or attrition
How it WOrks
The Transfer Shock model monitors students during their first term after transfer to detect early academic disruptions that often precede stop-out or delayed completion. By tracking enrollment behavior, credit accumulation, and early performance, the model flags students who may benefit from timely academic support and advising interventions.
Transfer shock indicators
These indicators signal early academic disruption during a student’s first term after transfer. When one or more occur, timely intervention can significantly improve outcomes.
-
Course
Withdrawal -
Zero Credits
Earned
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Low Credit
Completion -
Full-Time Credit
Shortfall
-
Low First-term
gpa -
Significant GPA
Decline
The Impact
Earlier Intervention When It Matters Most
Transfer Shock enables institutions to identify students experiencing academic disruption during their first term after transfer—the period of highest risk for stop-out and attrition. By detecting these signals early, advisors and support teams can intervene before challenges compound.
Actionable Insights for Institutions
- Identify at-risk students within the first term after transfer
- Deploy targeted advising, incentives, and academic support
- Reduce stop-out risk and delayed time to degree
- Improve post-transfer persistence and momentum
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