CFEED INSIGHTS | SCHOOL DISTRICT OF OSCEOLA COUNTY (SDOC)
UNDERSTANDING
"SLIP-BACK"
STUDENTS
Understanding when students fall below proficiency after reaching it, and what the data reveals about patterns of risk and recovery.
Ashton Terry
Sr. MANAGER, RESEARCH, EVALUATION & ACCOUNTABILITY
February 2026
WINTER UPDATE - FAST BEST PM 2
84,000+
STUDENTS ANALYZED (2018-2025)
~20,000
SDOC STUDENTS HAVE EXPERIENCED A SPRING-TO-SPRING SLIP-BACK SINCE 2018
36%
OF ALL SLIP-BACKS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SWITCHING SCHOOLS THE FOLLOWING YEAR
86%
OF ALL SLIP-BACKS ORIGINATE FROM A PRIOR-LEVEL 3 SCORE
DEFINING THE PROBLEM
WHAT IS A SLIP-BACK
STUDENT?
A slip-back student is one who earns a level 3-5 score on a state ELA or Mathematics assessment and later drops to a level 1 or 2 in the same subject area.
SDOC leadership has focused primarily on Spring PM 3 to Spring PM 3 slip-backs across consecutive school years. However, slip-backs can also occur at other intervals such as from a Spring PM 3 score to a Fall PM 1 score at the start of the next school year.
Building on research completed in early 2025, SDOC partnered with CFEED to analyze scores of more than 84,000 students from 2018 to 2025 using FSA and FAST ELA and Math data.
KEY HISTORICAL FINDINGS
BY THE NUMBERS
- Students with School Environmental Safety Incident Reporting (SESIR) referrals are 16% more likely to slip-back.
- Grade 4 ELA has seen over 2,000 slip-backs since 2015. More than any other FAST ELA test level.
- Algebra 1 and Geometry each have over 3,000 historical slip-backs-more than 50% higher than any other FAST Math test.
- Excluding EOC exams, Grade 5 math has the highest FAST Math slip-back count at 1,956.
- Prior-year level 3 scores account for 86% of all slip-backs; Level 4 accounts for 10%.
OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPACT
5,185 Slip-Backs Occurred In One Year Alone
From Spring 2024 PM 3 to Spring 2025 PM 3, there were 2,362 ELA slip-backs and 2,823 Math slip-backs district-wide. In ELA, 73% of those drops went from Level 3 to Level 2. In Math, 67% were Level 3 to Level 2. Nearly one in five slip-backs involved students who had previously scored at Level 4.
SPRING 2024 → SPRING 2025
SLIP-BACK RATES BY GRADE & SUBJECT
Grade 4 ELA recorded the highest ELA slip-back rate at 19%. In Math, EOC exams drove the highest rates: 24% in Algebra 1 and 22% in Geometry. Grade 5 Math tied for the highest grade-level rate at 18%.
SCORE RECOVERY
WHO ARE "BOUNCE-BACK" STUDENTS?
A bounce-back student is one who slipped back from a level 3 – 5 to a level 1 or 2 but later recovered to a level 3 – 5 score. Recovery is associated with significantly better long-term outcomes across high school and beyond.
HIGHER GPA IN HIGH SCHOOL
- Bounce-back students earn higher grade-point averages compared to those who never recover.
MORE ACCELERATED COURSES
- More likely to complete a 5+ high-school level accelerated courses during middle or high school.
HIGHER GRADUATION RATES
- Bounce-back students are more likely to graduate from high school on time.
POST-SECONDARY MATRICULATION
- More likely to enroll in a post-secondary institution after graduation.
SPRING 2024 → SPRING 2025 BOUNCE-BACK RATES
ELA BOUNCE-BACK RATE
59%
Grade 8 had the highest rate at 81%. Grade 5 was lowest at 48%.
MATH BOUNCE-BACK RATE
50%
Grade 6 had the highest rate at 67%. Grade 5 was lowest at 35%.
HISTORIAL AVERAGE (2018-2025)
1 in 4
Across all years, only about 25% of slip-back students recovered a level 3-5 before the end of their testing career. Current rates exceed this, suggesting that intentional identification and intervention is working
Critical finding: Students who slip all the way to level 1 are highly unlikely to bounce back. In Spring 2025, 91% of bounce-backs come from students who had slipped only to level 2, not level 1. This pattern held in 2025-26 PM 2 data (94%).
OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPACT
2025-26 MID-YEAR UPDATE: A 38% IMPROVEMENT IN SLIP-BACKS
From 2024-25 PM 3 to 2025-26 PM 1, more than 16,000 slip-backs were recorded. By PM 2, that figure dropped to 10,168, a 38% improvement. The Math slip-back rate fell from 77% to 45%; ELA dropped from 36% to 24%. This suggests that intentional, timely identification of slip-back students is making a measurable difference.
2025-26 SCHOOL YEAR (AFTER FAST BEST PM 2)
CURRENT SLIP-BACK & BOUNCE-BACK SNAPSHOT
BOUNCE-BACK RECOVERY - 2025-26 PM 2
RECOVERY IS ACCELERATING
Following PM 2, 41% of ELA-eligible slip-back students scored Level 3-5, a 14-point gain from PM 1. In Math, 21% bounced back, also up 14 points from PM 1.
ELA saw 696 bounce-backs (up 47% from PM 1), while Math saw 232 bounce-backs, remarkable 170% increase from the OM 1 window,
Grade 6 ELA had the highest bounce-back rate at 52% . Grade 7 Math led at 41%. Grade 5 remained the most challenging in both subjects (35% ELA, 5% Math), warranting prioritized early-grade intervention.
EQUITY LENS
SUBGROUP COMPARISON - 2025-26 PM 2
Slip-back risk is not evenly distributed. Students from historically underserved subgroups face significantly elevated rates and lower bounce-back recovery. Targeted monitoring of these groups is essential.
RECOMMMENDATIONS
WHAT CAN SCHOOLS DO NEXT?
Once slip-back students are identified through PM data, school-based leadership teams can collaborate with teachers, coaches, and families to act with precision and urgency.